Idea of deck stat tool - need feedback

[Goblin Hero]

Have idea for another statistical tool (see picture below). It shows you how many land you're most likely to have in play on turn X. Missed land drops are colored red. I.e. looking at the pics below you're most likely to skip your 4th land drop.
Can it be useful? Worth coding it? Unfortunately I can't take into account other spells what can put into play additional lands or non-land mana sources.

[Huggybaby]

This would be helpful as part of an analysis suite. I've been waiting for a comprehensive, dedicated deck analyzer for a long time. After all, the only app I know of that does a Baxter analysis is MWS, and there must be other equally helpful ways to look at a deck.

[silly freak]

This is a cool idea! I'm not very good in statistics, so an explanation of the math behind it would be helpful. After all, if that tool integrates into existing applications, it would probably find much more acceptance. For example, forge's "deck analysis" tool would benefit from it.

[rjp14]

That might actually be useful as it will give you an idea when or what you can drop. To expand upon that it may be useful to add something that will show you a turn break down that gives you a percentage based break down of how many lands are to be expected.

T1____________T2 (Just used underscores for forums)

0 - 10%_______0 - 0%
1 - 90%_______1 - 50%
2 - 0% _______2 - 50%

I can see a lot of potential if you can somehow connect what can be played to the lands some how. Allow the user to build there basic spell rotation(s) in a sense. It would be good to be able to setup multiple possibilities/rotations. This would really help users to see how their deck will play in a baseline sense and how their cards can interact/play into one another.

Also you could add another column that would hold non land/ addition land sources and then have a toal source coloumn this way.

I will do some work with paint or something to give you a visual idea.

[Goblin Hero]

the only app I know of that does a Baxter analysis is MWS

Do we have a good description of this? The only thing I can find is http://www.mtgsalvation.com/222-out-of- ... -mana.html

an explanation of the math behind it would be helpful.

It's quite easy. Let lib - library size; lnd - number of lands; hand - hand size
average number of lands = lnd/lib*hand
the probability of having n lands can be calculated as C(land, n)*C(lib-land,hand-n)/C(lib,hand)
there С(m,n) is the Binomial coefficient.

if that tool integrates into existing applications

Into MA to be true.

add something that will show you a turn break down that gives you a percentage based break down of how many lands are to be expected

You're reading my mind. Seriously. It is quite easy - see formula above.

I can see a lot of potential if you can somehow connect what can be played to the lands some how.

And again you're reading my mind. But how to do it? Writing the AI what simulate the play and describe the rules of all the cards?

[Huggybaby]

Regarding the Baxter analysis, I'm still waiting for Bog Wraith to find his book: Deep Magic: Advanced Strategies for Experienced Players of Magic: The Gathering. Also, A guy here was looking for some code.

[rjp14]

GH I've been doing somw thinking which has lead well to more ideas. So once I settle on what ideas I like and seem to fit well I'll throw up another post.

*I have way too many ideas that need fleshing out atm.

[rjp14]

I haven't forgotten about posting it is just taking more time then I thought it was going to take to think out the ideas and realize their flaws. Anyway to give you an idea of what I'm thinking you should go ahead and code that. As the ideas I have would take that code and use/expand upon it.

I'm going to do some visuals on the PC in a bit (I have been scribbling them on paper) but for now here's the 1 of the more fleshed out ideas I have been working with. (More to come as I flesh these ones out I come up with better ones )

Idea 1: (Visuals to come as well they should give a great idea of what I'm describing)

Simlpified Land Visual and Spell Rotations

-The user has the ability to select a deck (From combo box that is populated by deck folder) or not. If a deck is selected the user has the ability to setup spell rotations with that deck. If not spells/spell rotation boxes are unavailable.

-Lands: This box contains the guessed amount of lands available. (The average lands for that turn is guessed. However the user has the ability to select a different number if they chose. Behind the number of lands is the percentage chance of the likelihood that that land count will be available to them.

-Spells: This box if available contains all of the spells from the deck whose Converted Mana Cost (CMC) are equal to or less than the number of lands selected. Each spell is listed here followed by its CMC. With a tooltip that reveals the text written on the card.

-Mana: This box (if available) shows the user the total mana available, used and remaining for the current turn.

-Rotation: There are 2-3 boxes available for this to compare multiple rotations. They show the breakdown of the spells chosen for each turn followed by the mana breakdown for that turn.(Used, remaining, and available) Also the user has the ability to save each breakdown and load each breakdown and compare. Loading is done through a combo box that shows all the saved rotations. Compare highlights the differences between the rotations.

-Picture Preview: Not essential but would be nice to have as an added feature. This way the user is able to view the spell cards that they are choosing to use.

That's my first idea. Feel free to comment and let me know what you think. I am also working on a more in depth expanded version of this that will actually take into account mana type and their ratios as well as the user's "hand."

All comments are welcome.

[Goblin Hero]

here's the 1 of the more fleshed out ideas I have been working with.

I do not understand what you mean by "spell rotation". Could you please fill you GUI example with real data.

[rjp14]

Okay I've done as you requested. Including two examples. One for turn 1 and the other for turn 2. I've also included a little blurb on it explaining how it works quickly. It will probably need some reworking. Here's some more info below.

-The compare function highlights the spells that are different between the different rotations.

-Once you change to turn 2 the lands update. After selecting whether or not the lands change the spells update to the total mana available.

Anymore questions or things that need clearing up let me know.

[Goblin Hero]

Ok, now I understand it a bit. But I still do not understand the purpose of so-called rotations. It's just a desired/possible sequence of spells. Turn 1 shock, turn 2 incenerate, etc... And what? What do you mean by comparing them? BTW sequence of spells depends on current game situation.

[kristijanH]

Maybe it would be more usefull if you get the info what chance a spell witc CMC 1 is drawn at turn 1, the chace to to have a card with CMC at turn 2 etc.

[rjp14]

Yeah it is more of the desired spells you want to play and in what order. I also realize that you sometimes are required to respond to another player. What I'm trying to do is allow for the user to figure out what order there ideal sequences are. Giving them a visual turn by turn break down of how they will play out their decks. Now I do realize that in Magic nothing goes in the order you would hope. However this will allow you to do some planning with your deck. Because just because you build a deck doesn't mean you see some of the great possibilities of how it plays out. Especially how you cards can interact together.

Also I've played a lot of MMOs hence spell rotations. This is the preferred order of your spells that gives you the highest efficiency while dealing the most damage possible. Sorry if that's been confusing you.

Also the compare function is just a quick visual way for the user to see the differences between different "rotations" that they have setup.

I'm trying to stay away from things that involve ai as they tend to be a lot of work/maintenance.

Anyway I figured this may be useful. Its not quite solitaire but yeah like you say its a sequence builder of sorts.

Feel free to take the ideas and tweak them if anyone has a way to expand upon or better the idea.

[Bog Wraith]

Now I do realize that in Magic nothing goes in the order you would hope. However this will allow you to do some planning with your deck. Because just because you build a deck doesn't mean you see some of the great possibilities of how it plays out. Especially how you cards can interact together.

That is a very good point

I think that seeing it this way could show players a possible optimum way of planning to play the deck, depending of course on in game circumstances. Nothing can prepare a player fully for all possibilities, but something like this would, IMO, help a player getting to know a deck or archetype how to pilot it during preparations for play.

This is a very cool idea & I`d like to see this implemented in some form or another, even if in a separate app.

[Kl3p_co.]

@rjp14: You don't really talk about rotations, it's more priorities - I have a creature and a sorcery spell, can play them both in the same turn, but which one gets the priority? Now it depends what you're playing against, so there is no virtual chance a program can tell you the right prioritized spell without further information As you've played lotsa mmos let me draw an analogy - In WoW, a mage has a easy rotation of 4x Arcane Blast + Arcane Missile, whereas with a shadow priest, you have an opening sequence, and then it's all about the priorities - are the DoTs up? Is the Mind Blast cd finished? Magic is more like playing a SP, rather than playing a mage.