Which decks does the AI play best?

[austinio7116]

I thought I'd use my deck clustering algorithm, combined with the Forge AI vs AI tournament simulation to work out which decks the AI can pilot the best and so which decks are best to practice against in each format. There are some caveats to take into account with this approach - it assumes that the decks generated by the clustering algorithm are roughly the best decks in each format - and it assumes that a deck that the AI can beat the AI with is also good against humans, but it's better than guessing (and easier than studying the code and working it out, or playtesting forever) so here goes...

[austinio7116]

All decks listed here are available in the recently updated MTGDeckClusters net decks list in Forge.

[austinio7116]

Here are the results for Legacy - so it seems Burn is the deck to beat there:

Legacy Cluster 085 Burn-Sligh 24 Points
Legacy Cluster 050 Burn 21 Points
Legacy Cluster 035 Eldrazi 21 Points
Legacy Cluster 065 Burn-Sligh 21 Points
Legacy Cluster 015 Death And Taxes 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 057 Reanimator 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 042 Aluren 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 097 Eldrazi 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 031 Bant Aggro 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 092 Eldrazi 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 034 Infect 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 044 Dragon Stompy 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 051 Twelve-Post 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 083 Rogue 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 013 GWx Maverick 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 030 Bant Aggro 18 Points
Legacy Cluster 037 Merfolk 18 Points
.
.
.
truncated

[austinio7116]

And here is Vintage - MUD and Eldrazi looking good:

Vintage Cluster 022 MUD-Stax 24 Points
Vintage Cluster 054 Eldrazi 21 Points
Vintage Cluster 053 MUD 21 Points
Vintage Cluster 037 JaceStorm 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 029 Dredge 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 078 MUD 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 067 mcguirecj (5th Place) 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 073 URx Aggro 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 010 Ichorid 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 043 MUD 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 048 Uncle_Rico (32nd Place) 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 030 Ichorid 18 Points
Vintage Cluster 023 Ichorid 18 Points
.
.
.
truncated

[austinio7116]

For Modern - elves come out on top:

Modern Cluster 053 Elves 24 Points
Modern Cluster 119 Elves 24 Points
Modern Cluster 002 Affinity 24 Points
Modern Cluster 114 UB Mill 21 Points
Modern Cluster 020 5-Color Humans 21 Points
Modern Cluster 022 Merfolks 21 Points
Modern Cluster 092 Temur Aggro 21 Points
Modern Cluster 054 W-R Prison 21 Points
Modern Cluster 138 Soul Sisters 21 Points
Modern Cluster 078 White Tron 21 Points
Modern Cluster 004 GBx Rock 21 Points
Modern Cluster 005 Affinity 21 Points
Modern Cluster 120 Slivers 21 Points
Modern Cluster 116 G-R Madcap Moon 21 Points
.
.
.
truncated

[austinio7116]

and finally for Standard Grixis energy at no. 1:

Standard Cluster 002 Grixis Energy 18 Points
Standard Cluster 010 Sultai Aggro 18 Points
Standard Cluster 020 Esper Gift 18 Points
Standard Cluster 042 Temur Energy 15 Points
Standard Cluster 009 BR Aggro 15 Points
Standard Cluster 014 Mardu Vehicles  15 Points
Standard Cluster 019 Grixis Energy 15 Points
Standard Cluster 035 Esper God Pharaoh's Gift 15 Points
Standard Cluster 013 G-R Monsters 15 Points
Standard Cluster 031 Temur Energy 15 Points
Standard Cluster 040 Mono Red 15 Points
.
.
.
truncated

[austinio7116]

Next steps:

1) Run multiple tournaments for each format and average the results to reduce the variance.
2) Run a super-tournament on all 4 formats together - just in case the best decks for the AI overcome format limitations

[austinio7116]

Here are the top decks from the super-tournament - as I suspected - the AI is not that great with the complex Vintage and Legacy decks - so Modern decks come out on top. Interesting to see Mardu Vehicles from standard up there too - perhaps the AI plays it well, or perhaps it plays against it badly (perhaps misjudging attacks into vehicles) - other Standard decks made it to the top too:

Modern Cluster 022 Merfolks 30 Points
Modern Cluster 076 Red Deck WIns 27 Points
Modern Cluster 020 5-Color Humans 27 Points
Vintage Cluster 023 Ichorid 27 Points
Legacy Cluster 092 Eldrazi 24 Points
Modern Cluster 080 Zoo 24 Points
Modern Cluster 053 Elves 24 Points
Vintage Cluster 024 MUD 24 Points
Vintage Cluster 029 Dredge 24 Points
Modern Cluster 002 Affinity 24 Points
Standard Cluster 016 Mardu Vehicles  24 Points
Vintage Cluster 002 MUD-Stax 24 Points
Vintage Cluster 076 Merfolks 24 Points
Legacy Cluster 032 Jund 24 Points
Legacy Cluster 065 Burn-Sligh 24 Points
Legacy Cluster 097 Eldrazi 24 Points
Standard Cluster 012 Grixis Energy 24 Points
Standard Cluster 046 R-B Aggro 24 Points
Vintage Cluster 054 Eldrazi 24 Points
Vintage Cluster 063 MUD-Stax 24 Points
Standard Cluster 050 Mardu Vehicles  24 Points
Standard Cluster 007 Mardu Vehicles  24 Points

[austinio7116]

Might be quite fun to see if anyone can find AI decks that beat these tournament winners in AI vs AI combat - if anyone wants to submit one here I'll give it a go - see if we can find the "best" AI deck(s) to practice against. Presumably there could be decks that the AI can play well but that wouldn't be competitive for a human just because of the way the heuristic AI works.

[austinio7116]

After 3 runs of the super-tournament - here are the top decks by total points:

Modern Cluster 022 Merfolks 78
Modern Cluster 002 Affinity 72
Modern Cluster 058 Skred Red 72
Modern Cluster 138 Soul Sisters 72
Legacy Cluster 051 Twelve-Post 69
Legacy Cluster 085 Burn-Sligh 69
Modern Cluster 053 Elves 69
Modern Cluster 118 InnocentFishes (5-0) 69
Standard Cluster 013 G-R Monsters 69
Standard Cluster 036 UG Merfolk 69
Vintage Cluster 024 MUD 69
Vintage Cluster 076 Merfolks 69
Legacy Cluster 054 Burn 66
Modern Cluster 005 Affinity 66
Modern Cluster 020 5-Color Humans 66
Modern Cluster 067 Death and Taxes 66
Modern Cluster 081 BW Eldrazi 66
Modern Cluster 120 Slivers 66
Modern Cluster 125 5-Color Aggro 66
Standard Cluster 008 Mono Red 66
Standard Cluster 016 Mardu Vehicles  66
Standard Cluster 042 Temur Energy 66
Vintage Cluster 002 MUD-Stax 66
Vintage Cluster 044 MUD-Stax 66
Vintage Cluster 054 Eldrazi 66

[austinio7116]

Now just playing off the top 25 against each other averaging over 5 swiss tournaments, another deck bubbles to the top - these are the decks we aim to beat:

Modern Cluster 138 Soul Sisters 72
Vintage Cluster 024 MUD 66
Legacy Cluster 054 Burn 63
Legacy Cluster 085 Burn-Sligh 63
Modern Cluster 005 Affinity 54
Modern Cluster 022 Merfolks 54
Vintage Cluster 054 Eldrazi 54
Vintage Cluster 076 Merfolks 54
Legacy Cluster 051 Twelve-Post 51
Standard Cluster 042 Temur Energy 51
Modern Cluster 125 5-Color Aggro 48
Modern Cluster 053 Elves 45
Vintage Cluster 044 MUD-Stax 45
Modern Cluster 058 Skred Red 42
Modern Cluster 118 InnocentFishes (5-0) 42
Standard Cluster 013 G-R Monsters 42
Modern Cluster 002 Affinity 39
Modern Cluster 120 Slivers 39
Standard Cluster 016 Mardu Vehicles  39
Modern Cluster 020 5-Color Humans 36
Modern Cluster 067 Death and Taxes 36
Standard Cluster 036 UG Merfolk 36
Vintage Cluster 002 MUD-Stax 36
Standard Cluster 008 Mono Red 33
Modern Cluster 081 BW Eldrazi 30

[austinio7116]

Adding in the new Challenger decks - quite an interesting result:

Hazoret Aggro 6 Wins(0 Byes)-0 Losses-0 Ties => 18 Points
Standard Cluster 013 G-R Monsters 5 Wins(0 Byes)-1 Losses-0 Ties => 15 Points
Standard Cluster 037 BG Constrictor 5 Wins(0 Byes)-1 Losses-0 Ties => 15 Points
Standard Cluster 048 B-R Midrange 5 Wins(0 Byes)-1 Losses-0 Ties => 15 Points
Standard Cluster 019 Grixis Energy 5 Wins(0 Byes)-1 Losses-0 Ties => 15 Points
Standard Cluster 015 G-B Constrictor 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 016 Mardu Vehicles  4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 032 U-W Approach 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 022 BG Counters 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 043 Grixis Control 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 045 Esper God Pharaoh's Gift 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 036 UG Merfolk 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 005 Grixis Midrange 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 046 R-B Aggro 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 027 Uw Gpg 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 049 G-R Monsters 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 024 Mardu Vehicle 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 009 BR Aggro 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 023 G-B Constrictor 4 Wins(0 Byes)-2 Losses-0 Ties => 12 Points
Standard Cluster 050 Mardu Vehicles  3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 001 R-W Aggro 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 026 Grixis Energy 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Vehicle Rush 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 044 BG Constrictor 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 031 Temur Energy 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 011 Mono-red Aggro 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 033 Sultai Constrictor 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 007 Mardu Vehicles  3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 042 Temur Energy 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 003 Mardu Vehicles 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Counter Surge 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 004 U-W Auras 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 028 Abzan Aggro 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 002 Grixis Energy 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 021 UW God-pharaoh's-gift 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 012 Grixis Energy 3 Wins(0 Byes)-3 Losses-0 Ties => 9 Points
Standard Cluster 025 U-B Control 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 018 U-W Approach 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 006 Esper Approach 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 014 Mardu Vehicles  2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 020 Esper Gift 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 017 UW Control 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 029 Grixis Control 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 035 Esper God Pharaoh's Gift 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Second Sun Control 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 040 Mono Red 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 030 Grixis Midrange 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 041 Ramunap Red 2 Wins(0 Byes)-4 Losses-0 Ties => 6 Points
Standard Cluster 010 Sultai Aggro 1 Wins(0 Byes)-5 Losses-0 Ties => 3 Points
Standard Cluster 008 Mono Red 1 Wins(0 Byes)-5 Losses-0 Ties => 3 Points
Standard Cluster 039 Esper Gift 1 Wins(0 Byes)-5 Losses-0 Ties => 3 Points
Standard Cluster 034 UB Control 1 Wins(0 Byes)-5 Losses-0 Ties => 3 Points
Standard Cluster 038 God-Pharaoh's Gift 1 Wins(0 Byes)-5 Losses-0 Ties => 3 Points
Standard Cluster 047 UBR Control 0 Wins(0 Byes)-6 Losses-0 Ties => 0 Points

[timmermac]

I'm looking for results for the following decktypes:

5-color Slivers
ug slivers with flying/shadow/only slivers can block/ +x/+x to slivers
decks with Beastmaster Ascension/Doubling Season combo